The clear answer, first
No — not at this Budget. The government has explicitly ruled out changes to stamp duty at the 28 October 2026 Budget, with the Prime Minister reportedly stating plainly that reform "won't be happening" this time round. That's a reported position based on recent statements, not a permanent guarantee, so it's worth confirming directly once the Budget is actually delivered — which is exactly what we'll do.
What's genuinely unusual about 2026 isn't that stamp duty is changing — it's how many different reform ideas are in public circulation at once. None of them are government policy. Here's every one of them, with its actual status.
Every proposal currently in circulation
1. Conservative Party: abolish stamp duty under £300,000
Status: Opposition proposal, not government policy. Announced by the Conservative Party in October 2025 and analysed by the IFS and the Institute for Government, with an estimated annual cost of £4.5–10 billion. It has no bearing on what the sitting government does at this Budget.
2. A flat-rate tax above £500,000
Status: Rumoured, unconfirmed. The Guardian and Financial Times have reported Treasury modelling of a flat 4–5% rate applied only above a £500,000 threshold, which would exempt roughly 80% of transactions from stamp duty altogether. Reported as under examination, not confirmed as a plan.
3. IPPR: replace stamp duty with an annual 0.5% charge
Status: Think-tank proposal. The Institute for Public Policy Research has modelled replacing SDLT entirely with an annual charge of 0.5% of property value, arguing it could free up hundreds of thousands of homes for sale over five years by removing the up-front cost of moving. Not government policy.
4. Land Value Tax
Status: Party policy, not government position. Backed by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, and with a degree of academic support, a land value tax would tax the underlying land rather than the buildings on it. It isn't part of the current government's platform.
5. The "Fairer Share" 0.48% model, linked to PM Burnham
Status: Denied — "pure speculation." This model would replace both council tax and stamp duty with a single annual charge of 0.48% of property value (0.96% for second homes). It's been publicly associated with Andy Burnham's past positions, but Downing Street explicitly called reports of it becoming policy "pure speculation" on 27 July 2026. Treat this one as ruled out unless that changes.
6. Tony Blair Institute: a loan-repayment model
Status: Think-tank proposal, not adopted. This idea keeps stamp duty as it is, but lets buyers repay it via a 10–15 year government loan instead of paying it upfront at completion — addressing the cash-flow problem rather than the tax itself.
7. Resolution Foundation: a phased three-stage reform
Status: Think-tank proposal. Proposes raising the threshold to £300k immediately, reducing rates over years two and three, then introducing an annual property tax by years four and five — a gradual transition rather than a single Budget-day change.
8. Berkeley Group: a 1% cap for first-time buyers and downsizers
Status: Industry proposal, not government policy. Announced by the developer on 11 September 2026, this would cap stamp duty at 1% for first-time buyers and downsizers and remove the 5% additional-property surcharge — aimed at boosting transactions rather than raising revenue.
What is actually moving — just not stamp duty
While stamp duty itself looks settled for this Budget, a separate and genuinely confirmed policy is progressing: the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, the "mansion tax" on homes worth £2 million or more, announced in the 2025 Budget and targeted for April 2028. There's also live reporting on whether its threshold might drop to £1.5m. We cover that in full detail in a separate piece, linked below.
What we'll check on 28 October
When the Budget is delivered, we'll confirm against the official HM Treasury documents whether any of the eight ideas above got adopted in any form, whether the "ruled out" position held, and whether the cross-party Housing Committee's recommendation — that the government consult formally on stamp duty alternatives by the end of 2026 — gets a response.
Frequently asked questions
Has the government confirmed stamp duty will stay the same?
It's been reported as ruled out for this specific Budget, with the Prime Minister quoted saying change “won't be happening.” That's a reported position, not a locked-in guarantee, so we'll confirm it directly against the actual Budget on 28 October 2026.
What's the most likely reform if one ever happens?
No single option stands out as official policy right now. Of everything in circulation, the Resolution Foundation's phased approach and the Housing Committee's recommendation for a formal consultation are the two with the most institutional weight behind them — but neither has been adopted.
Is the 0.48% “Fairer Share” plan linked to the Prime Minister actually happening?
No — Downing Street explicitly called reports of this becoming policy “pure speculation” in July 2026. It remains associated with past positions, not a government plan.
Where do all these reform ideas come from if not the government?
A mix of think tanks (IPPR, Resolution Foundation, Tony Blair Institute), opposition parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens), and industry (Berkeley Group). None of them represent government policy unless and until the government itself adopts and announces one.
Will this page get updated if something changes on Budget day?
Yes. We run an automatic check on Budget day itself, and this page — along with the two linked below — will be updated within 24 hours with exactly what was confirmed, ruled out, or left unchanged.
This page is for general information and doesn't constitute financial or legal advice. Everything above marked "reported" or "proposed" is not confirmed government policy — always check GOV.UK and HM Treasury's official Budget documents directly before making a financial decision.